Putting on the Old Tin Foil Hat

These are fraught times.  I mean, we've got Russia threatening to invade Ukraine and possibly trigger a wider conflict.  Or are they?   I generally steer clear of the world of elaborate conspiracy theories, but sometimes even I start having my suspicions.  In this case, for instance, all the noise about invasions is coming from the West, principally the US, backed up by the UK and EU.  Ukraine itself has been doing its best to downplay it all their government, rightly, pointing out that the avalanche of media speculation, fueled by constant statements from Western leaders, risks causing panic in Ukraine, at a time when no direct threats have been made.  Sure, the Russians have been positioning lots of military units near to the border with Ukraine and in neighbouring Belarus (on the pretext of military exercises).  Putin has also been vocal in decrying the very idea of Ukraine joining NATO.  Yet there have been no direct threats of invasions.  Clearly, Putin is trying to pressure Ukraine into acquiescing to his demands that they not join NATO, but that's not the same thing as actually threatening to invade another sovereign country.  It's crude coercion, to be sure, but the West have so far not produced any concrete evidence that he is either prepared, or planning, to go further.  So why all the scaremongering?  What do Western leaders have to gain?

So, just for a moment, let's slip on our tin foil hats and venture into the world of the conspiracists in order to indulge in some speculation.  One obvious answer to the question of 'why?' is that the Western leaders most vocal in their talk of invasions are seeking to divert public attention from their own domestic difficulties and Putin's less than subtle attempts to pressure Ukraine have provided them with the perfect opportunity.  It would explain why they seem so keen to prolong their (allegedly) manufactured crisis despite the Russians' failure (so far) to oblige with an actual invasion of Ukraine.  But what if they really do want a war?  Arguably, a conflict with Russia would be a way of pegging back a rival and possibly undermining Putin domestically.  Doing it this way, using Ukraine as a proxy, would obviate the need for direct involvement, thereby avoiding all that bad publicity domestically when the body bags start being shipped home.  In this context, let's look a moment at one of the West's most recent, completely unsubstantiated, allegations that the Russians might be planning a 'false flag' operation to make it look as if the Ukrainians had attacked them, thereby justifying incursions into Ukraine.  But let's turn this all around - what if a 'false flag' operation was launched to make it look as if the Russians had launched some kind of military attack on Ukrainian territory?  It would validate the West's invasion talk and justify them reinforcing Ukraine with all sorts of hardware and military expertise with which to retaliate.  

I know, we're getting deep into paranoid conspiracy territory here, but the way in which Western leaders have conducted themselves invites this sort of speculation.  Back in the real world, I suspect that Russia's actions are being amplified by some in the West as a convenient distraction.  Moreover, the more their bellicose statements build up the threat of invasions, the more it can be presented to their domestic audiences as a huge 'victory' when it doesn't happen.  Not that I have any sympathy for Putin's position - his demands that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO are completely illegitimate.  As a sovereign country Ukraine obviously has the right to join, or not join, any international alliance or organisation it likes.  At base, it seems as if Putin's demands are all tied up with his annexation of Crimea from Ukraine: his statements make clear that his objections to Ukraine's possible NATO membership are that it might result in Ukraine pressing its attempts to reclaim Crimea, militarily and backed up by NATO allies if necessary.  Unfortunately, the approach currently being taken by the West, would seem to back up these fears - at least, that's the way Putin will present it domestically and to his allies.